Download the full December HVI
CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index (HVI) rose by just 0.1% in the last month of spring, the weakest Australia-wide result since January 2023.
This marks the 22nd straight month of growth, but it could be close to the last in this cycle.
“The downturn is gathering momentum in Melbourne and Sydney,” said Tim Lawless, CoreLogic’s research director. “While the mid-sized capitals, which have dominated the growth cycle of late, are also losing steam.”
Melbourne, where housing values have fallen over ten of the past twelve months, recorded a -0.4% fall over the month, taking values -2.3% lower over the past year.
For Sydney, August likely marked the peak of the cycle, with values flattening in September and falling -0.2% in October and November.
On a rolling quarterly basis, we are now seeing four of the eight capitals record a fall in values, led by Melbourne (-1.0%) and joined by Darwin (-0.7%), Sydney (-0.5%) and Canberra (-0.3%).
“The mid-sized capitals and most of the regional ‘rest of state’ markets continue to provide some support for growth in the national index, but it is clear momentum is also leaving these markets,” added Mr Lawless.
Perth’s pace of capital gain continues to lead the nation, with values up 1.1% over the month and 3.0% higher over the rolling quarter, however this was the softest rise over a rolling three-month period since April 2023 and is less than half the rate of growth recorded through the June quarter (6.7%).
Similarly, Brisbane’s quarterly rate of growth has eased back to 1.8%, the slowest pace of gains since March 2023, while Adelaide’s 2.8% rise in values over the past three months was the smallest outcome since June 2023.
Outside of the capitals, regional housing trends have been a little stronger, with the combined regional index rising 1.1% over the past three months compared with a 0.3% lift across the combined capitals. That being said, like the capital city trends, there is significant diversity, with regional Victoria weighing on the headline numbers, down -0.9% over the rolling quarter, while every other ‘rest of state’ region continued to record a mild rise, led by regional WA up 3.3%.
Weaker housing conditions have been accompanied by a rebalancing in available supply as vendor activity lifted through spring. Based on the volume of houses and units advertised for sale over the four weeks ending November 24th, capital city listings are up 16% since the end of winter, with Perth (+33%) and Adelaide (+25%) recording the largest lift in advertised stock levels through the spring season, albeit from an extremely low base, with total listings remaining well below average in these cities.
Sydney and Melbourne listings are now tracking 10.4% and 9.1% above their previous respective five-year averages, to be at their highest level for this time of the year since 2018.
At the same time, purchasing activity looks to be winding down. CoreLogic’s estimate of capital city home sales over the past three months is -4.6% lower than a year ago and -2.0% below the previous five-year average. The largest drop in the volume of home sales has been in Sydney, where sales over the rolling quarter were estimated to be -15.4% lower than a year ago and -15.1% below the previous five-year average.
With more available supply and less purchasing activity, selling conditions have deteriorated through spring. The combined capitals auction clearance rate has held below the 60% mark since mid-October, and median selling times are trending higher for private treaty sales.
CoreLogic Australia