In today's Pulse, CoreLogic’s Tim Lawless analyses housing affordability for each electorate around the country, ahead of the upcoming Federal election.
Housing has emerged as a pivotal issue in the upcoming federal election, with housing policies taking centre stage in the political debate and dominating discussion among voters.
And rightly so. An imbalance between housing supply and demand, alongside cost-of-living pressures, high interest rates and low savings has pushed the cost of owning or renting a home higher, placing immense pressure on many Australians, particularly first-time homebuyers and renters.
However, this isn’t a new problem. Housing affordability challenges have been with us for a long time and most economists agree that policies announced in the lead up to the election are more focussed on applying a Band-Aid to the symptoms of housing affordability rather than addressing the underlying issues that have created such an unaffordable housing sector: a long running under-supply of appropriate housing relative to demand.
CoreLogic produces four different measures of housing affordability. Each of them was either equal to or at new record highs for unaffordability at the end of 2024.
Nationally, the ratio of dwelling values to household incomes has been above 6 consistently since 2003, reaching a record high in 2022 and again in December 2024 at 8.0. A ratio of 8 means a household on the median income would be spending eight times their annual gross income to purchase the median value dwelling.
Similarly, based on serviceability metrics for a new mortgage, the median income household would require more than 30% of their gross income for mortgage repayments on the median dwelling value since 2002. The only respite was in 2020, when interest rates fell to emergency lows and housing values hadn’t yet rocketed higher. In December, a median-income household purchasing the median value dwelling with a 20% deposit would be dedicating just over half their gross annual income to mortgage repayments.
It’s also taking a record number of years to save for a 20% deposit at 10.6 years, assuming a household can save 15% of their income, which is a major challenge when cost of living pressures have been high. To make matters worse, rental affordability has never been this stretched, with rental households requiring roughly one third of their income to pay rent.
Geographically, Sydney stands out with the most severe levels of housing unaffordability, apart from rental affordability, where Adelaide is the most stretched. At the other end of the spectrum is Darwin, where a more balanced level of demand and supply has kept housing relatively affordable.
As of December, the most unaffordable electorates to buy a home are mostly located in Sydney,with 4 of the top 5 and 12 of the top 20 most unaffordable electorates.
The list was topped by the electorate of Bradfield, which includes the North Sydney and Hornsby region, with a dwelling value to income ratio of 16.5. Bradfield has recorded the highest dwelling value to income ratio of any electorate consistently since the final quarter of 2018, and prior to that was ranked either number one or two nationally since 2013.
While the electorate of Wentworth (ranked 12th most unaffordable) is home to more expensive suburbs, such as Bellevue Hill and Vaucluse, and has a slightly lower median income than across the Bradfield electorate. However, it’s also an electorate with much higher housing density. In the Wentworth electorate, 69% of dwellings are classified as units, compared with just 40% of housing in Bradfield. It’s a timely reminder about the affordability benefits that a diverse range of housing stock can provide.
Outside of Sydney, Regional NSW and Regional Qld both accounted for three electorates in the top 20, with Richmond recording the highest dwelling value to income ratio. Richmond, located in northern NSW and including high-profile coastal markets like Byron Bay, recorded a dwelling value to income ratio of 12.4, the highest of any regional market nationally. Before the pandemic, the electorate of Richmond was ranked 21st most unaffordable nationally, however, significant value growth through the pandemic saw affordability metrics across most lifestyle markets worsen substantially, with Richmond now ranked the 5th most unaffordable electorate nationally to purchase a home.
The most affordable electorates to buy a home are concentrated in Regional Qld, comprising 6 of the 20 most affordable electorates nationally, followed by Melbourne (4) and Regional NSW (3).
The sole federal electorate in Darwin, Solomon, is the most affordable electorate to buy a home nationally. Importantly, Solomon doesn’t have the lowest median dwelling value – that title goes to the electorate of Parkes in regional NSW. Rather, Solomon has a combination of relatively low housing values combined with relatively high incomes. In fact, housing values in Solomon remain 3.8% lower than their record highs recorded more than a decade ago in June 2014.
Among the capitals, the electorate of Melbourne stands out as the most affordable to buy, with the lowest dwelling value to income ratio at just 4.7. Melbourne is also the electorate with the highest proportion of units, which comprise nearly 80% of all dwellings. Mortgage serviceability on a new loan comes in under 30% at 29.7% and it would take a prospective household ‘just’ 6.3 years to save for a 20% deposit. Another factor that has supported the relatively affordable outcome is that dwelling values remain 7.5% below their record highs from 2022.
The electorates of Lalor and Hawke (ranked 12th and 13th nationally as most affordable to buy), located in Melbourne’s outer West, are good examples of how greenfield supply additions can help to keep a lid on housing affordability. The density of housing stock in these electorates is very low, with units comprising just 8.3% and 7.5% of housing stock, respectively.
The most unaffordable electorates to rent are concentrated in regional markets, especially Regional Queensland and Regional NSW which together made up 13 of the top 20 most unaffordable electorates for renters. At a local level, the Eastern Seaboard electorates from Hinkler in the north to Cowper in the south comprised 10 of the top 12 most unaffordable electorates for renters. Rents have risen by more than 40% over the past five years across all these electorates except Page (37.4%).
Richmond (Northern NSW) and McPherson (Gold Coast) topped the list, with a rental household on the median income requiring more than 45% of their gross annual household income to service median rent. In reality, it is unlikely rental households would be able to dedicate this much of their income to pay rent. Instead, renters on the median income may be renting properties at the lower quartile of the market or forming larger group households in an effort to maximise the tenancy to cover their rental payments.
The most unaffordable capital city electorate for renting was Hindmarsh in Adelaide. Located in the western suburbs of Adelaide, rental rates in this electorate have increased by almost 48% over the past five years, taking the median dwelling rent to $637/week. At a capital city level, Adelaide is the most unaffordable rental market, with a median income household requiring 35.1% of their gross annual income to cover the median rent.
The most affordable electorates to rent are clustered around the outer fringes of Melbourne, especially the outer West. Although rents in these outer areas have generally risen by more than 20% over the past five years, it has been from a relatively low base, and the pace of growth has eased over the past year. The median income household in these electorates would generally dedicate less than a quarter of their gross income towards renting – well below the national average of 32.8% and Greater Melbourne average of 28.3%. These electorates are also synonymous with greenfield housing supply, demonstrating the importance of new development in supporting healthy affordability outcomes.
The three electorates of the ACT (Canberra, Fenner and Bean) are all featured in the top 20 most affordable rental electorates, reflecting a relatively low rate of rental appreciation over the past five years. A strong supply response, especially across the unit sector of the ACT, has helped to keep a lid on rental growth across the region.
Two electorates from Regional Victoria made the top 20 list, with Ballarat (ranked 6th most affordable nationally) and Corangamite (8th) providing a reasonably affordable outcome for renters.
Brisbane also record two electorates on the top 20 most affordable for renters list, with Griffith (ranked 16th nationally) and Brisbane (17th). Even though rents have risen by close to 40% over the past five years in these electorates, affordability has remained reasonably healthy with the median income household requiring around 27% of their income to service median rent.
Meet Tim Lawless
Executive, Research Director, Asia-Pacific
Tim is executive research director of CoreLogic’s Asia–Pacific research division, managing a team of economic and data specialists across Australia and New Zealand. He brings more than 20 years’ experience to the role, providing deep insights and analysis on national housing trends.
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